2/16/18
AJ McCarron is Brock 2.0
By Cliff Rodriguez @Crod303
Dear 8 pound 6 ounce baby Jesus; otherwise known has John
Elway (according to Bronco’s homers that is). Please for the love of all that
is holy in the mile high city; do not fall victim to the fraudulent upside of an
unknown commodity. Broncos Country has been down this road before, we know how
the story ends.
The only difference between AJ McCarron (6’3) and Brock
Osweiler (6’7) is 4 inches and a smug ass grin. McCarron was original selected
in the 5th round of the 2014 NFL draft. The 2014 QB class included
superstars such as Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Logan
Thomas, Tom Savage, and Aaron Murray. All of whom were selected before
McCarron. Meaning at some point all were identified in most NFL circles as
better prospects than McCarron. The 2014 QB class did also produce Derek Carr
and Jimmy Garoppolo both of whom appear to be franchise QBs; even considering
Carr’s regression in 2017.
Prior to the 2014 NFL Combine McCarron was projected to be a
2nd or 3rd round pick. Most scouts believed that McCarron was a “Great Game Manager”
and made “Great Decisions”. His draft stock fell after combine interviews in
which McCarron reportedly came across as “cocky” and “over confident”. So much
for being “a maker of great decisions”; say that in a Yoda voice………..you’re
welcome.
For reasons beyond my level of comprehension; there is huge
buzz around McCarron’s upside as a starting QB. Dude has played in 7; that’s one
hand and two pinky toes worth of career games. All of his career starts (3) came
in 2015. He’s complied 920 yards passing, completing 64.7% of his passes with a
6/2 TD to INT ratio. He’s thrown 133
career passes.
I will give McCarron credit for being accurate in his
limited playing time. In 2015 he averaged about 27 passing attempts per game
started. He completed 61% of his passes for 6.3 yards per completion. That’s adequate
numbers for a starter if you average it out for an entire season. Coincidently
in 2015 McCarron’s teammate Andy Dalton compiled 3,250 passing yards,
completing 66.1% of his passes averaging 8.4 yards per completion with a 25/7
TD to INT ratio in 13 games. So based off of these numbers McCarron wasn’t a
huge down grade from Dalton in his first few starts. McCarron did go 2-1 as a
starter including playing at Denver and vs Baltimore; both tough challenges.
However keep in mind Brock Osweiler and Ryan Mallet were the starting QBs in
those games.
After looking into McCarron’s career numbers from (2015) my Spidey
sense isn’t tingling in a direction that leads me to believe in McCarron’s
ability to be a viable solution for the Broncos in 2018. I’m fine with his
accuracy. I think he is an adequate leader. I think with a good run game and
defense he could win a few games as a spot starter.
My negativity and disbelief in McCarron stems from one stat.
3rd down conversion percentage. The ability to sustain drives and
score points in the NFL demands efficiency on 3rd downs. In 2017 the
average 3rd conversion percentage in the NFL was approximately 38%.
In 2015 while under center McCarron led the Bengals to a 34.5% conversion rate
on 3rd downs (19/55). This stat is including the wild card game vs Pittsburgh.
To further kick McCarron in the junk; keep in mind that in
2017 the Denver Broncos offense was pathetically inefficient. However the
Broncos were able to convert 94/241 3rd down attempts for a 39% conversion
rate which ranked 15th in the NFL. That was from the trio of Trevor,
Brock and Paxton. In 2016 the Trevor, Paxton ticket converted 34.2% of 3rd
downs. In the magic season of 2015 Peyton (9 games) and Brock (8 games)
converted 35.3% of 3rd downs.
In 2017 the top 3 teams in 3rd down conversion
percentage were Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. In 2016 the top 3 teams were
New Orleans, Green Bay, and New England/Tennessee (tied). In 2015 the top 3
were New Orleans, Atlanta and Arizona. See the pattern? Signs are everywhere.
Based on McCarron’s limited sample size and on a statistic
that I feel exemplifies an NFL QBs worth; How could the Broncos possibly think
McCarron is an upgrade to the backup QBs they already employee?
He’s the same guy. He’s Brock. He’s Trevor, He’s Mike
Glennon. He’s Matt Flynn. Can you say Chad Henne, Matt Moore, he’s Blaine freaking
Gabbert.
I 100% understand the argument that he’s half the price of
Kirk Cousins on the free agent market, and could have a similar career
trajectory if given an opportunity. I get it, he’s on sale and the Broncos are desperate
bargain shoppers right now.
But why pay McCarron $18 million a year when you can keep
Brock or Trevor for $10 million? Other than creating early season optimism the
team would end up with the same record. Hell Paxton is basically free and could
possibly convert 30% of the 3rd downs next year.
3 years in a row is enough of a sample size to determine
that something has to change on offense. Efficiency at QB has to be addressed. Stop
retreading the tires. A $30 million dollar QB may not be the answer, but I know
for a fact that a backup QB from another team isn’t the answer either. Don’t
fall for the bait. Learn from Houston’s Brock experiment. Think about Mike
Glennon, and remember Matt Flynn.
All stats came from Pro-Football Reference.
All stats came from Pro-Football Reference.
As always come at me haters; I always look forward to a debate.
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