What To Make Of The Su'a Cravens Trade......

Back in February I made a post about what the Denver Broncos should do at inside linebacker. I mentioned some names to look at in the draft, but I also threw out an idea that was pretty outside the box, and that is picking up a bigger safety and converting him to inside linebacker. The evidence I gave for this was what the Carolina Panthers did when they drafted Thomas Davis out of Georgia. Davis played safety for the Bulldogs, but could also come up and play in the box. Rather than keep him at safety they had him gain some weight and moved him to the weakside linebacker in the 4-3 defense. Ever since then Davis has proven himself to be one of the most productive, and athletic linebackers in the NFL. With todays move it looks as though the Broncos have positioned themselves to do the same thing with Su'a Cravens.

Coming out of the University of Southern California Cravens was labeled a linebacker/safety. A player who could play either position, and play each spot well. He has the speed to play strong safety, be a TJ Ward type player where he will hang out in the box, and be a nightmare for teams when he blitzes. Another option is he could gain about 10-15lbs and become strictly a linebacker, but with the ability cover tight ends, running backs, and even a wide receiver on occasion. In the Broncos defense he would be an inside linebacker along with Brandon Marshall, and between the two of them probably be the fastest tandem of inside linebackers in the NFL. Should Denver move him to inside linebacker the days of teams being able to take advantage of the match up of a running back or tight end on a linebacker are over.  This move gives Denver flexibility like we have never seen here, and I for one am interested to see how Cravens is used. My personal hope is they move him to ILB, and that they use his flexibility to create problems for opposing teams offenses. This was an overall great move by Elway and the Broncos front office.

Stay At 5 Or Make A Trade?

As the draft approaches we have seen teams make moves up and down the draft board to better position themselves for their individual team goals. The NFL holds "the combine" where teams can get a look at the top college players coming out in the draft, and see them do individual workouts, as well as interview them to get to know them better. After the combine colleges will have their "pro days" to showcase the talent on their individual teams to the NFL teams that send representatives to watch. During all this you have NFL free agency open up, and teams can make offers to players they think that will help their team in the upcoming season. Spring in the NFL is an exciting time to say the least.

Listening to the radio I have also heard that the springtime in the NFL can also be called "the season of lies", and I think that is pretty fitting. Teams will show interest in one player only to go after another, front offices will leak information to give off the impression they are looking one way when they are actually looking another. It is why trying to gauge what your team will do in the draft, and free agency is so difficult. The best anyone can do is look at their favorite teams roster, see where they have holes, and then try and make an educated guess as to what the decision makers of their favorite team are thinking. If you are a Denver Broncos fan one thing is for certain, and that is John Elway is great at making people think he is looking to go one direction, only to go the complete opposite direction when the time comes.

First we have to simply state the obvious, and that is they have two options, and they are to either keep the pick, or trade the pick away for other picks. If Denver keeps the pick I have stated that my pick would be Quentin Nelson, the guard from Notre Dame. Drafting him would give Denver one of the better guard tandems in the NFL with Nelson, and last seasons big offseason pick up Ronald Leary. With Bolles and Veldheer at each tackle, Nelson and Leary at guard, and Paradis at center, it would give the Broncos talent on the offensive line that they haven't had in years. Having a great offensive line makes everyone on the offense better. Case Keenum would have an easier time making accurate throws, and CJ Anderson would finally have a line that could consistently open lanes for him to run through. This would also make it easier to control time of possession which plays into the Broncos favor because they still have a great defense, and if we control the time of possession it will put that much more pressure on opposing teams to have to score when they have the ball. The other player I would consider at 5 if he is on the board is Bradley Chubb the defensive end from N.C. State. Either way Denver adds a player that they desperately need to either their offensive, or defensive lines. Games are won in the trenches, and this is where Denver needs the most help.

The other option Denver has is to trade the 5th pick, and get more picks in return. I think with a top 5 pick you have a chance to get a player like Von Miller, or Cam Newton. A generational player that you can build a team around. Those opportunities don't come about every year, so when they do I feel it is best to take advantage of them. However, this year there is one team I would be open to trading with, and that is the Buffalo Bills. The reason I would welcome this trade is we would get the 12th and 21st picks in the 1st round, and most likely a 2nd or 3rd round pick to go with it. If you trade with Buffalo you can take a player like Roquan Smith, or Vita Vea at 12, and still get the guard you need in Will Hernandez at 21. It would be hard for me to want to give up the 5th pick in the draft, but to be able to get a player like Vita Vea for your defensive line, and Will Hernandez for your offensive line would set Denver up for years to come.

Personally I hope that Denver makes the trade with Buffalo. The Bills can get the franchise QB they want, and Denver can add two 1st round players to their team. In a perfect world this trade would happen, and Vita Vea would be the 12th pick, and Will Hernandez would be our 21st pick. Then in the 2nd and 3rd rounds they start looking at running backs, tight ends, and linebackers.

How The Success Of Case Keenum Has More To Do With The Broncos Than Case Keenum

The Broncos have decided to make Case Keenum their next starting quarterback, and from all accounts it looks as though he will be here for at least the next two years. I think they got him for a great price, 2 years guaranteed at 36 million dollars total, and I think he has the talent to get the Broncos where they need to be. Keenum showed in college that he has the ability to make any throw he's asked to make, and has consistently become more successful each year he has played in the NFL. In this post I am going to make the argument that his success in Denver has more to do with the Broncos offensive staff, and how he is used rather than Keenum's pure QB ability. 

The NFL is constantly changing. Every year there seems to be a new trend that the media, and fans will say their team has to do to be successful. Whether it be in the 90s when the big deal was finding that one running back that will carry the load for your offense, to the early 2000's when the 3-4 defense made a huge comeback, and it seemed like if you wanted to be successful you had to move to that defensive scheme. Some trends hold water, and others don't, but one thing about this league that is changing is the quarterback play. Gone are the days of the John Elways, Dan Marinos, Troy Aikmans, and the type of QBs who come in and run an offense that that is dictated by the coaching staff. Last season with the Philadelphia Eagles success, and how they succeeded we saw a new way of looking at the QB position in the NFL. Instead of forcing the QB to learn, and run a specific type of offense, teams are now adjusting their offense to what the strengths of their QB are. When Carson Wentz got hurt the Eagles coaching staff brought Nick Foles in, sat him down, and asked him what his favorite formations and plays were. They tailored their offense to what their QB was comfortable with instead of forcing their QB to play in a system that maybe wasn't the most compatible with his skill set. It is for this reason I feel that the success of Case Keenum in Denver will have more to do with how the Broncos use him, rather than how he fits into the offensive scheme they choose to run. 

To be a QB in the NFL you have to have talent. There are only 32 people on the face of the planet that in any given year can be named a starting QB in the NFL. Granted there are injuries, and back ups are forced to step in, but for the most part if you are named a starting QB in the NFL there are only 31 other people who can say that they have the same job you do. I think we underestimate a lot of these QBs, and pigeon hole them into opinions of how good they are based on how they perform in one offensive system. I think if Denver brings in Keenum, and runs an offense he is comfortable with we will see the same type of success he had last year with Minnesota, and when he was in college. In that same breath I think that if we bring him in and force him to run an offensive scheme that the coaching staff is comfortable with he will most likely struggle, and our worst nightmares about this singing will come true. If Vance Joseph and Bill Musgrave decide to have the conversation with Keenum about the style of offense he is most comfortable running, and build around that Denver will not only have success with Keenum, but we could quite possibly be seeing another great QB in Denver. 

Another reason to be happy about this signing is that it gives Denver the salary cap room, and draft freedom to plug the other holes this team has. Denver has 11 picks in this years draft, and that gives them a lot of freedom to make moves to add players that can make an impact for years to come. With the signing of Keenum it will allow Denver to still hopefully draft Quentin Nelson with the 5th pick, and then potentially sign Nate Solder to come play left tackle. Denver could also trade the 5th pick to say, Buffalo for the 12th and 22nd draft picks which would allow them to get two first round players to fill holes at offensive tackle and inside linebacker. Denver could also keep the 5th pick and simply draft the best player available, which is usually the best draft strategy for teams to use. 

The Broncos decision to sign Case Keenum gives them the freedom to build the team around him to give him the best chance for success, and it is now up to Vance Joseph and Bill Musgrave to tailor an offense that best fits Keenum's skill set. Whether or not they do that will have more to do with Case Keenum's success in Denver than any other variable in this deal.   

The Hidden Numbers That Matter

When people look at the success of an NFL team they look at things like total offense, total defense, and stats that basically have to do with the offense and defense of their team. Something that goes largely overlooked is special teams, and to be even more specific is starting field position both for your offense and your opponents offense. These numbers are important because it shows where your team starts with the ball compared to where your opponent starts with the ball. As kickers become more, and more accurate from distance, the shorter field a team has to get points plays a big role in how plays are called both on the offense, and defensive side of the ball. In a league where most games are decided by 7 points or less making a team have to go further to score points is often times determines who wins the game. 

I realize that what I just said might be a little confusing, so let me try and give an example of what I mean. Last year, according to Pro Football Reference the Denver Broncos ranked last in regards to where their opponents started with the ball. On average the Broncos opponents started from their own 33 yard line. The next closest team had an average that was 3 yards less. Now, that might not sound like a lot, but you figure in you are taking every single drive a team has into the equation so a 3 yard difference is actually quite large. It also means that there were a lot of times that the Denver defense had to take the field with their opponent already being in position to score at minimum a field goal, and you start to see how this can be important. When you look at the average starting field position of the Denver offense we are basically tied for 2nd from the bottom with a bunch of teams with an average starting field position of our own 27 yard line. As mentioned before this is an average of every drive, so that means often times Denver got the ball backed up inside its own 20 yard line. In comparison the Patriots had the best defensive starting field position with making their opponents start at their own 24 yard line, and the Eagles had were tied for the lead with average starting field position for their offense with a few other teams with their average drive starting at their own 30 yard line. Over 16 games NFL teams will have hundreds of drives, so you can't expect the numbers to show huge differences, but it shines some light on why certain teams always seem to win the close games while others don't. 

Now I will narrow this down to what I think this means for the Broncos, and how it should be looked at going forward. Despite losing Talib Denver still has two shut down corners, and with Von Miller and Shane Ray still have a team that can get after the QB. Quite simply if Denver can win the field position game it will lead to a lot more success as far as wins and losses. Denver is also one of the best "front running" teams in the NFL. Meaning if they get a lead, and force a team to pass it lets Von and company not have to worry as much about stopping the run, and they can do what they do best which is rushing the QB. It also forces their opponent to abandon their running game, and they are forced to throw the ball, often times under pressure, at our defensive backs like Chris Harris and Bradley Roby. That is the recipe for interceptions. 

If you look at the Super Bowl 50 team they were masters at this. They would get a 10 point lead, and it would force the opposing teams to throw the ball. At that time when Denver was sending Demarcus Ware, Von Miller, Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and often times a blitzing TJ Ward at the QB it would create a lot of turnovers, or QBs just throwing the ball away to not take a sack. Granted Denver doesn't have a lot of those players anymore, but they can still get after the QB, and they can still lock opposing receivers down. If you take this ability, and then make an opposing team have to go a long ways before they can score it will make the team far more successful again. This is why I feel one of the biggest needs of the Denver offseason is to get a new punter who has the ability to "flip the field" when Denver struggles on offense. There aren't too many times I would say a team should draft a punter, but if JK Scott, the punter from Alabama is there in the later rounds he would be a player Denver should take a serious look at. He is a Denver native, going to Mullen High School, and he has the leg to get Denver out of trouble when they are pinned down in their own zone. He also punts the ball high enough that not many teams were able to get any kind of return on the punt which helps keeps teams pinned down in their own end. Denver's special teams were terrible last year, and I believe cost us at least 3 games. Denver would be a better football team if they did nothing else than address those problems, but we have a chance to not only fix the issue, but make it a team strength. For Denver to be successful in the 2018-2019 season they need to concentrate on the hidden yards in special teams game, and as Denver fans we can only hope that is something that is high on the Broncos list of things to do this offseason. 

A Universal Rule Of Football

Within the last few days things in the NFL have become a whole lot crazier than they were last week. It is at these times whether it be in life, or through the microscope of football you have to go back to what you know. A universal rule if you will. Free agency hasn't even started yet, and we have players bouncing all over the league. Bronco fans such as myself are upset that Aqib Talib was traded, the Cleveland Browns have begun cashing in on their salary cap, and draft pick riches with the trades for Jarvis Landry and Tyrod Taylor. The LA Rams getting rid of Ogletree, and as I mentioned getting Aqib Talib. Quite frankly things have become crazy in the NFL.

So what is a Bronco fan, or any football fan suppose to think? How do we make sense of all of this? In my life experience when things are crazy you go back to what you know to be correct. This is a Denver sports blog so I will only speak for Denver fans, but there's some free advice for you if you are not a Denver sports fan but still read the blog. There is a universal rule in football that the teams with the best offensive and defensive lines will usually be most successful. The NFL, through free agency, is designed to give every team the ability to literally transform themselves into a Super Bowl contender in one offseason. On average two thirds of every NFL team will turn over during each offseason, and that is why you're never more than a year away from having that hope of being a Super Bowl contender again. The league has changed since the days of John Elway, Dan Marino, and Joe Montana. Where if you were lucky you get a QB who can single handedly take you to the promised land. Those days are over. This is why you can see a guy like Joe Flacco look like the next John Elway one year, and then look like the next Jeff George the next. With all the changes that happen every year one rule still applies, and that is the team with the better lines on offense and defense will usually have the most success.

This is why any plan that the Broncos have to "rebuild" has to be centered around rebuilding their offensive, and defensive lines. Derek Wolfe has neck issues, Domata Peko is aging, Adam Gotsis made big strides this past season, and they are moving Demarcus Walker back to defensive end. I will be the first to say it isn't enough. This will be a need that will also need to be addressed in the draft. Moving on to the offensive line, which is a unit that the front office has tried to address the last few off seasons, but have failed miserably. The Broncos turn over 2 to 3 starters on the offensive line every year, and that needs to stop. The quickest way for Denver to turn things around is fix their lines is to draft a guy like Quentin Nelson, and then go for the "sexy" players in the later rounds of the draft and free agency.