The Hidden Numbers That Matter

When people look at the success of an NFL team they look at things like total offense, total defense, and stats that basically have to do with the offense and defense of their team. Something that goes largely overlooked is special teams, and to be even more specific is starting field position both for your offense and your opponents offense. These numbers are important because it shows where your team starts with the ball compared to where your opponent starts with the ball. As kickers become more, and more accurate from distance, the shorter field a team has to get points plays a big role in how plays are called both on the offense, and defensive side of the ball. In a league where most games are decided by 7 points or less making a team have to go further to score points is often times determines who wins the game. 

I realize that what I just said might be a little confusing, so let me try and give an example of what I mean. Last year, according to Pro Football Reference the Denver Broncos ranked last in regards to where their opponents started with the ball. On average the Broncos opponents started from their own 33 yard line. The next closest team had an average that was 3 yards less. Now, that might not sound like a lot, but you figure in you are taking every single drive a team has into the equation so a 3 yard difference is actually quite large. It also means that there were a lot of times that the Denver defense had to take the field with their opponent already being in position to score at minimum a field goal, and you start to see how this can be important. When you look at the average starting field position of the Denver offense we are basically tied for 2nd from the bottom with a bunch of teams with an average starting field position of our own 27 yard line. As mentioned before this is an average of every drive, so that means often times Denver got the ball backed up inside its own 20 yard line. In comparison the Patriots had the best defensive starting field position with making their opponents start at their own 24 yard line, and the Eagles had were tied for the lead with average starting field position for their offense with a few other teams with their average drive starting at their own 30 yard line. Over 16 games NFL teams will have hundreds of drives, so you can't expect the numbers to show huge differences, but it shines some light on why certain teams always seem to win the close games while others don't. 

Now I will narrow this down to what I think this means for the Broncos, and how it should be looked at going forward. Despite losing Talib Denver still has two shut down corners, and with Von Miller and Shane Ray still have a team that can get after the QB. Quite simply if Denver can win the field position game it will lead to a lot more success as far as wins and losses. Denver is also one of the best "front running" teams in the NFL. Meaning if they get a lead, and force a team to pass it lets Von and company not have to worry as much about stopping the run, and they can do what they do best which is rushing the QB. It also forces their opponent to abandon their running game, and they are forced to throw the ball, often times under pressure, at our defensive backs like Chris Harris and Bradley Roby. That is the recipe for interceptions. 

If you look at the Super Bowl 50 team they were masters at this. They would get a 10 point lead, and it would force the opposing teams to throw the ball. At that time when Denver was sending Demarcus Ware, Von Miller, Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and often times a blitzing TJ Ward at the QB it would create a lot of turnovers, or QBs just throwing the ball away to not take a sack. Granted Denver doesn't have a lot of those players anymore, but they can still get after the QB, and they can still lock opposing receivers down. If you take this ability, and then make an opposing team have to go a long ways before they can score it will make the team far more successful again. This is why I feel one of the biggest needs of the Denver offseason is to get a new punter who has the ability to "flip the field" when Denver struggles on offense. There aren't too many times I would say a team should draft a punter, but if JK Scott, the punter from Alabama is there in the later rounds he would be a player Denver should take a serious look at. He is a Denver native, going to Mullen High School, and he has the leg to get Denver out of trouble when they are pinned down in their own zone. He also punts the ball high enough that not many teams were able to get any kind of return on the punt which helps keeps teams pinned down in their own end. Denver's special teams were terrible last year, and I believe cost us at least 3 games. Denver would be a better football team if they did nothing else than address those problems, but we have a chance to not only fix the issue, but make it a team strength. For Denver to be successful in the 2018-2019 season they need to concentrate on the hidden yards in special teams game, and as Denver fans we can only hope that is something that is high on the Broncos list of things to do this offseason.