Monday, February 26, 2018

My Pick For Who The Broncos Should Take As Offensive Tackle In The 2018 Draft

I have made a lot of posts talking about the problems that Denver has had on the offensive line, and pointing out that whoever the Broncos have at QB won't matter with the offensive line as it is currently constructed. As such I think my pick might surprise people, but I can say I have literally watched hours of tape on the tackle prospects coming out this year. This draft is deep in tackles, and Denver should be able to find the guy they can plug in immediately and have a starter at the left tackle position for years to come.

My pick for the future left tackle of the Denver Broncos is not a player I would take with the 5th pick in the draft. My pick for the Denver Broncos left tackle is Desmond Harrison, a left tackle out of the University of West Georgia. Harrison has a troubled past, and was recruited to the University of Texas, but ended up playing at West Georgia University, and is kind of a "diamond in the rough".

Why do I feel he is the player to pick? Well I think that question can be answered in what you look for in a left tackle. Obviously he needs to be a big guy, and while he is no doubt a big guy, he needs to get bigger. Getting bigger isn't something that cannot be achieved through a solid offseason of hard work, and isn't something that is going to take away from his natural God given abilities. Denver has taken risks on players before like Bradley Roby and Shane Ray, so taking a player other teams would consider a gamble isn't something totally foreign to the Broncos. If you watch the film I think it is pretty clear to see that this kid is a special football player. As someone who has played offensive line he was really the only player coming out this year that really impressed me. Harrison is more mobile than any other left tackle I watched film on, and I watched film on just about every offensive linemen coming out. He has long arms, has fantastic footwork, and absolutely plays with a mean streak. As I mentioned I have watched film on every offensive linemen coming out, and the way this kid finishes his blocks is second to none. A player who transfers from a big school to a small one should show he absolutely dominates his competition, and it was clear to me that is exactly what he did. No other offensive tackle in this draft has his ability to get to the second level on run plays, and has the length and strength to pass block in the manner he does. Will he have to gain some weight? Absolutely. I have seen him listed at anywhere between 288lbs to 315lbs depending on the site you look at. Ideally I would like to see him playing around 320-325lbs. Every scouting website makes it clear he has the frame to gain that weight, and with the right offseason conditioning program it is 100% achievable. Depending on how he does at the combine I think he can be drafted in the 2nd or even 3rd round. He would end up being the steal of the draft if the Broncos got him in the 3rd round, but the Broncos front office needs to be ready to make a move with the draft capital they have in the way of picks to pull the trigger on a trade should a run on tackles start in the second round.

So who do the Broncos take with the 5th pick? With the 5th pick in the 2018 NFL draft the Denver Broncos select, Quentin Nelson, guard, from Notre Dame. Nelson has been labeled the best guard that has come out of college in years. The Broncos draft Nelson at 5, and he immediately starts at right guard. This allows Denver to move Ronald Leary back to left guard, a position that he made his name at. Having Leary at left guard will help Harrison adjust to the NFL, and give him the help he needs to shorten his learning curve. Drafting Harrison also lets Denver move Garrett Bolles to right tackle where you typically want a nastier, more of a run blocker type of offensive lineman. Bolles being in the league for a year will also help Nelson adjust, but I have absolutely zero worries about Quentin Nelson adjusting to the NFL. Nelson is without a doubt a special player, and potentially a generational player that could be one of the anchors of the Broncos offensive line for 10 years or more. I also do not believe it is a stretch to say that with Ronald Leary at left guard, and Quentin Nelson at right guard the Broncos might have the best guard tandem in the NFL. It also wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility that with Harrison at left tackle, and Bolles at right tackle Denver could have their offensive tackles set for years as well. An offensive line consisting of Desmond Harrison at LT, Ronald Leary at LG, Matt Paradis at C, Quentin Nelson at RG, and Garrett Bolles at RT could give Denver the best young offensive line in the NFL. With Denver needing a new QB, and at least one new running back having their offensive line set for years to come would be something Denver could build around. When you watch this film on Desmond Harrison pay attention to how he moves, how he gets to the second level, and how he finishes blocks. He has the potential to be a special left tackle in the NFL, and I would draft him in the 3rd round, or even potentially the 2nd round.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zZaO_TpMYo


Tuesday, February 20, 2018

2018 Inside Linebacker Prospects

During the 2015 Denver Broncos Super Bowl run the inside linebackers for Denver were Brandon Marshall, and Danny Trevathan. Both guys could cover any running back out of the backfield, and in the aggressive style of defense that Denver played they were often asked to do so. Having inside linebackers who not only can play downhill, deliver punishing tackles, and cover running backs out of the backfield played a huge role in that defenses success. A game that is specifically standing out in my head was the AFC Championship against the Patriots. Bill Belichek is probably the best at finding, and creating favorable match ups. During that game he routinely tried to get both Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan isolated on running backs, and both Marshall and Trevathan were up to the challenge and shut those attempts down. This is going to be one of my longer posts as there are a lot of things to consider here.

After Super Bowl 50 Danny Trevathan left the team, and signed with Chicago. Todd Davis then won the starting spot over Corey Nelson, and proved to be one of the better inside linebackers in the NFL. In fact pro football focus rated him as one of the best in the NFL. Both Davis and Nelson are free agents this year, and Denver is going to have to decide if they resign Davis, or let him go elsewhere. I am just going to cut straight to the point, and say I think they should let him sign with another team. Todd Davis played well, but I think it is important to read league trends, and with the NFL largely becoming a passing league having a inside linebacker who is known more for being a run stopper than being able to cover running backs and tight ends creates match up issues we like the ones we saw last year.

Before I go into who I think the Broncos should draft I am going to bring up a player who isn't a free agent, but is a player who could be an example for how Denver should approach their inside linebacker issue. That player is Thomas Davis of the Carolina Panthers. Why do I bring him up? The reason is when he was drafted he was actually drafted as a safety from Georgia. He was a player that could play both positions, and when he got to Carolina they decided he should gain the weight, and play linebacker. At the time Carolina was playing a base 4-3 defense, and Davis was moved to the weakside linebacker position which is a position where he really doesn't have to deal with too many offensive linemen getting to put their hands on him, but a potential solution for the Broncos could be moving a player who played/plays safety to the other inside linebacker position which would allow them to match up better with teams like New England who try and isolate inside linebackers running backs. Sometimes you have to think outside the box to create advantages, and a move like that would be an "outside the box" that could create a big advantage for an already aggressive Broncos defense. There is a player on the Broncos roster who could make that move, and his name is Jamal Carter. He played safety for us last year, but a 6'2 and 200lbs it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could gain the weight and make the move to inside linebacker. After all last year they took second round draft pick Demarcus Walker, who was a defensive tackle in college, and made him an outside linebacker. Here is a highlight video of Jamal Carter in college playing a lot like a linebacker.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVWKffz71-Y&t=65s

I am going to get into potential draft picks who could immediately step in and play opposite of Brandon Marshall at inside linebacker for the next year. There are players at the top of the draft like Roquan Smith from Georgia, or Rashaan Evans from Alabama who Denver would have to draft in the first round. Neither are worth the 5th pick, so that would mean they would have to trade back into the first round, or trade their 5th pick to move back a few spots in the 1st round to take one of those two guys. Seeing as that isn't really a possibility I am going to suggest some players in the later rounds I think could step in, and not only start, but make an immediate impact.

The first guy I am going to talk about is a linebacker named Christian Sam who played at Arizona State. Coming from a Pac 12 school he has the ability to cover running backs and tight ends, but can also play downhill, and stuff the run. He is a complete inside linebacker in my opinion as he plays with an edge. He is 6'2 and 240lbs, and projected to go in rounds 4-6.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9sA2x5c0_8&t=3s

The next player worth mentioning here is Josey Jewell who is a linebacker from Iowa who is the definition of a linebacker. He can tackle (134 tackles his senior year with 1 forced fumble), can make plays in the backfield (13.5 tackles for loss, with 4.5 sacks), and can cover ( 11 pass breaks ups and 2 ints). There really isn't much to not like about this kid and the way he plays. He is a character guy as he was a team captain, and is an ideal fit to play opposite of Brandon Marshall in our 3-4 defense. He is 6'2 and 230lbs, and projected to be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1-TwOZ1Uzg

The final guy I will suggest, Azeem Victor, also comes from a Pac 12 school which is appealing as that is a conference known for high octane passing attacks. Azeem is 6'1 and 230lbs, and played for the University of Washington. While not as physical as a player like Christian Sam he makes up for it in his ability to play sideline to sideline. He has had some off the field issues with a DUI charge, and also an injury issue with breaking his leg during his junior year and was only able to play in 10 games. IN my opinion he is a player like Jake Butt, Shane Ray, or Bradley Roby who due to an injury issue, or off the field issue might fall into the later rounds and end up being a steal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS41uPIVrpg&t=76s

This being a longer post I am going to wrap this up, but regardless of what Denver decides to do next year at inside linebacker they need to adapt to the NFL turning into a match up league, and draft players who do not create potential liabilities in the aggressive defense they play. I would feel confident in all of these guys lining up next to Brandon Marshall next year, and not worry that they will be taken advantage of when they play a team that tries to isolate their running backs on our inside linebackers.


Sunday, February 18, 2018

Bold Predictions for 2018 QB Free Agents

The 2018 QB free agency frenzy will start on March 12th when NFL teams are allowed to start contacting Unrestricted Free Agents and may sign any free agent on March 14th.  We all know that teams have a good feel on who they are going to sign several weeks in advance and with the desperate need for a miracle QB to come in and in a QB driven league, the top money and attention will go to the QB class.  

Here are my Bold predictions on where the QB free agent class of 2018 might end up and why.  I am looking forward to seeing if any of them will be correct and if they are wrong, then you can put me in the class of Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay and we will never revisit it again and still call ourselves "Experts."

NEW YORK JETS - Kirk Cousins

Sorry Bronco Nation but Kirk wants to win and can use a little bit more coin to upgrade his Shag Wagon Van.  He knows that the Jets have over $73 Million Dollars in cap space and can afford to upgrade around Kirk with free agents and the draft. 

The Jets also promoted Jeremy Bates to Offensive Coordinator who worked under Mike Shanahan, who everyone knows drafted Kirk Cousins.  This will allow the Jets to use their 6th pick in the first round of the draft to select Mike McGlinchy from Notre Dame and build the line for Kirk.   A line that is coached now by Rick Dennison, a longtime offensive mind and who also coached for... you guessed it.  Mike Shanahan. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS - AJ McCarron

Oh Cleveland.  If only Lebron James made himself available for another sport like Michael Jordan, they would definitely make Lebron the 20th Starting QB since 1999 when the Browns came back from the dust of Art Modell's moving trucks to Baltimore. 

Enter AJ, a two time College National Champion and husband to Brent Musburger's wet dream, Katherine Webb.  AJ spent the last 3 seasons with Cincinnati and has appeared in a whopping 11 games in his brief NFL career.  

However, this is a Cincinnati team that had Hue Jackson as their offensive coordinator in 2015, the year AJ was drafted to the Bengals.   Hue Jackson is the coach of the Cleveland Browns and although having only 1 more win with the Cleveland Browns than I do, he has found a way to keep his job and more importantly the title of Quarterback Whisperer. 

Cleveland already botched a trade for AJ last season and now that they do not have to give up a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick and with over $100 Million Dollars in cap space in 2018, they can way overpay for the 3 year starter and did I mention the husband of the one and only, Katherine Webb.  Remember, this is the team that paid Brock Osweiler $16 Million Dollars just to go away.  A restraining order might have been cheaper. 

With overpaying AJ in free agency, look for the Browns to select Saquon Barkley as their number 1 overall pick and Bradley Chubb with their 4th pick to hold the corners of the Defensive line with last year's number 1 overall pick, Myles Garrett. 

ARIZONA CARDINALS - Case Keenum

Is anyone else concerned that the Cardinals have no interest in Kirk Cousins?  Also if Andy Dalton is overrated, then why is AJ his backup?  

The Cardinals have zero quarterbacks on their roster for 2018.   With a history of bringing in Quarterbacks with a one time hype in College or the NFL and giving one last chance, a QB that is out there looking for a team to believe in him is Case Keenum.   

The Cardinals recent history of doorstep Quarterbacks included Kurt Warner, who the Giants kicked out for Eli.  Matt Leinart, who won the Heisman Trophy and never lived up to the hype in the NFL.  Derek Anderson, who actually made the Pro Bowl with the Browns in the 2007 season.  Let that sink in. Kevin Kolb, the much hyped backup QB made starter for the Eagles.  Then the great Carson Palmer, a Heisman Trophy winner and all but washed up after the Raiders abused him and traded him to Arizona for a couple late draft picks and a bag of Skittles. 

Why not bring in Case who just took the Vikings to the NFC Championship and is NCAA's all time leader in passing touchdowns with the University of Houston.  It fits the Cardinal mold and with Larry Legend coming back for probably his last season, why waste it with a rookie Quarterback?

MINNESOTA VIKINGS - Teddy Bridgewater

With all 3 of the Vikings quarterbacks entering free agency, the Vikings are too conservative to really enter the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes and would rather build with younger and cheaper talent.  Upon the return of Teddy in week 15 of 2017, all Case had to do was sneeze the wrong way and Teddy would have been in.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, Case kept winning and fell just short of the prize.  

With another full year of rehab and Powerbars, Teddy will be the next Fran Tarkenton of Minnesota. Let's just hope he's not the next Sam Bradford made of glass. 

DENVER BRONCOS - Sam Bradford/Baker Mayfield

Elway is the greatest QB of all time in my opinion.  The Elway magic has quickly been wiped away with the Vance Joseph blunder and no intelligent veteran is coming in to a situation where the Head Coach will probably be fired, no offensive line or running game, and who would have to cut or trade their best players in order to sign him.   

Peyton Manning came to a team coached by John Fox who barely lost to the Patriots in the 2003 Super Bowl with the Panthers and who managed to win a playoff game with the celestial Tim Tebow.  Kirk can come here for the Elway magic but will have a brand new coach and system in 2019 when Good Practice Vance will be let go after a 7-9 season.  

When all the chips are gone and all that is left is building from the draft, Elway will not waste another season with his "Championship" defense and will sign a bridge veteran in Sam Bradford.  All Sam will have to do is have his knees made of paper mache last for at least 6 weeks and at that point, the season will be 2-4 and the rookie can come in start his Broncos career and Elway can blame it on Sam, Vance, Billy Musgrave, and anyone else and can restart holding face with the Broncos Nation for 2019 with a fresh Coach, a talented rookie QB and a lower expectations.  

Who do the Broncos pick with their 5th pick in the draft?  The flag planter himself, Baker Mayfield.  Broncos are already familiar with Baker from the Senior Bowl and Elway can work with Baker's personality flaws.  Remember, Elway publically threatened to play for the Yankees than to play for the Baltimore Colts and even Terry Bradshaw stated "he's not the guy you win championships with."  
Is this a Master Yoda with a young Luke?  A Mr. Miyagi with a young Daniel son?  Let's just hope it's not Johnny Manziel 2.0. 




Saturday, February 17, 2018

The Turnaround Of The Colorado Avalanche

To say that the 2016-2017 Colorado Avalanche were a bad team is an understatement at best. They were terrible. They won 22 games on the year, and with 25 games left to play this year they have already won more games than they did last season. Credit should be given to Joe Sakic, and the rest of the Colorado front office for the turnaround. Sakic stuck with Jared Bednar as the head coach, and that move is paying off as well.

So what changed? I think the first noticeable change is that the Avalanche got younger, much younger! During the 2016-2017 season their average age was 28 years old, and that average is still misleading as there was not many players who were that young, but a few players who were so young they made the average age lower than how the team looked, and played. This year the average age of the team is 23.8 years old. The youth movement has proven to pay off with players like Samuel Girard who is a 19 year old defenseman, but is playing with the smarts of a veteran being just one example. Girard has shown he is going to be a special player for us, and at 19 we can expect him to be around for a long time. They have another player who isn't even 20 yet in center Tyson Jost who has shown he has special offensive talent, and will grow into a player that will be around Colorado for a long time. Add in players like Mikko Rantanen who is 21, JT Compher who is 22, and Alexander Kerfoot who is 23 and you have a young core of players behind team stars Nathan Mackinnion, who himself is only 22, and Gabriel Landeskog who is 25, and you have a core of young, fast, and hungry players that will be around for a long time.

The next reason this team has turned around is best defined in two words: Nathan Mackinnion. He has taken that next step into not just being a star player, but being one of the top 3 to 5 players in the NHL. Mackinnion has been hurt for a few games, and is still in the top 15 in overall points scored, 15th in goals scored, and tied for 17th in assists. His ranking is misleading as again, he has been injured and has played about 10 less games than the other players on the list. Mackinnion has had an impact in every game he has played in, and it is my opinion that he has turned himself into of the best 3 or 4 offensive players in the NHL when he is healthy.

The success of this team also has to do with team chemistry that last year simply wasn't there. Team chemistry, especially in a game as physical as hockey is one of the most important things when it comes to a teams success, and Joe Sakic made a controversial move this year that went a long way in fixing the chemistry in the locker room. The move Sakic made was getting rid of Matt Duchene. There is no doubt that Duchene is a talented offensive player, but he was toxic in the locker room. He made it no secret he wanted out of Colorado, and I do not think that it is any surprise that once he was gone the team collectively started playing better, and things began to gel. The Avalanche got a ton of assets in return for Duchene that really were not supposed to pay off this year, but Samuel Girard is making the most of his opportunity, and showing that he is a future super star in the NHL. Along with Girard the Avalanche they got forward prospects Vladislav Kamenev, and Shane Bowers, along with goalie Andrew Hammond. They received Ottawa's 2018 first round draft selection, Nashville's 2018 second round selection, and Ottawa's 2019 third round selection. Getting rid of Duchene fixed the team chemistry, and gave us more than enough ammunition to build something special here over the course of the next few years.

If there is anything to be critical of this Av's team about it would be it's physical size, and its toughness. These are hockey players, so saying they are not tough is not what I mean in a traditional sense. What I mean by toughness is they are simply more of a finesse team than they are a physical team, and when the playoffs come the physical play increases and that is where the Av's could struggle. As of right now Colorado only has 1 player in the top 50 in hits delivered, and that is Nikita Zadorov. They do not have anyone to really fill the "enforcer" role, and if you watched them play the Winnipeg Jets it would be impossible to not notice they really got pushed around, and bullied on the ice. With the team being so young there is no doubt that a lot of these guys will grow, and fill out as they get older, but that doesn't make it any easier to watch this year.

After coming off a 22 win season last year I don't think anyone expected the Av's to play as well as they are this year, and they could potentially make a run in the playoffs, but if there is anything to get even more excited about than their success this year it is the future! Last season the support for the Avalanche was on life support, but this season one can't help but smile when they watch this team and think about what the future holds!

Friday, February 16, 2018

The Future At Tight End For The Denver Broncos

For my last post I discussed how the Broncos had nobody that could open up the middle of the field at the slot receiver position, or at tight end. Like the slot receiver position Denver has bigger needs they need to address with their top picks, but I outlined potential later round picks who could come in and help immediately. This is going to be the same type of post only focusing on tight ends.

Before I start going over players I think it is important to know that there are two kinds of tight ends in the NFL. A traditional tight end who lines up in a 3 point stance, or at the end of the offensive line is called a "Y" tight end. They are usually the better blocker, and play the position in a more traditional role. Not to say that they can't be great receivers as well, but they are just your more traditional tight end. The prime example of a tight end like this is Rob Gronkowski who can block, and catch passes. The second type of tight end is called the "F" tight end. They are usually the better receivers, and can line up anywhere. Sometimes they will line up in the slot, sometimes they will line up in the backfield like an H-back, and at times they can even line up outside like a regular wide receiver would. Probably the best example of an F tight end is Jimmy Graham, or Julius Thomas. Ideally you would like to have a guy who can do both, but those types of players are difficult to find. 

Going into this offseason Denver has Jeff Heuerman and Jake Butt as the two tight ends on the roster. My personal opinion is Heuerman should be released as he just simply hasn't worked out. He would be what you consider an F tight end, but he has done nothing to warrant being brought back. Jake Butt is a guy who could be special, and is coming off an injury he sustained during his final year in college. Denver drafted him in the 5th round, but draft experts said that had he not been hurt he would've been a first round pick. Jake Butt has the potential to be one of the special tight ends who can play the Y, or the F. If Denver is going to have success in the 2018-2019 season Jake Butt will be a big part the reason why. After spending the last few days watching film on tight ends I feel pretty confident with the list of players I will name as potential compliments to Jake Butt at the tight end position. 

The first guy will mention is Troy Fumagalli from the University of Wisconsin. NFL.com has him listed at 6'6 and 248lbs. He is projected to go in rounds 3 to 5, and he is similar to Jake Butt in that he can play the Y or F position comfortably. He would be a player that you could put on the field with Jake Butt and create some serious match up concerns for opposing defenses. Playing for Wisconsin he had to learn how to sustain his blocks in the running game, and pass protection when called on to do so.


The next tight end I will take a look at is a player from Notre Dame named Durham Smythe. NFL.com has him listed at 6'5 and 257lbs. Smythe would be what you consider a Y tight end. Can he line up in the slot? Sure, but he plays with the demeanor of an offensive linemen. He is able to block defensive ends in 1 on 1 situations, but still can go out and make the big catch. His route running isn't the greatest, but he does have great hands. He is also projected to go in rounds 3-5. 


The third guy I will name as a potential tight end is Ian Thomas who played at the University of Indiana. In my opinion he has ability to play the Y or F tight end spot, and reminds me a lot of Antonion Gates. He is 6'5 and weights 247lbs, and projected to be taken in round 4-6. He looks deceptively fast on film, and has no issue going up and high pointing the ball. His route running needs some coaching, but scouts who have been around him say that he is a nice guy, and humble enough to know that he has room to grow. He is a project, but one that could pay off with the right team. 


Ryan Izzo from Florida State is the next guy I took a in depth look at. Izzo is listed at 6'5 and 245lbs, and is a traditional Y tight end. He is going to have to gain some weight if he wants to make an impact at the Y tight end in the NFL. Scouts have said he probably should've come back for his senior season, but since he declared for the draft he should be viewed as a project. He a good blocker, but his route running leaves a lot to be desired. He is projected to go in rounds 5-7, and will require solid coaching to make it in the NFL. 


The final guy I will go over is Dallas Goedert from South Dakota State University. Coming from a small school could potentially hurt him, but he has all the tools to be a great tight end in the NFL. I would say he is more the F tight end than a Y, and will need to work on his blocking ability to be able to be a mainstay at tight end in the NFL. He is listed at 6'5 and 255lbs, and is a better receiver than he is blocker. He has the ability to make the amazing catch, but at times get caught up trying to get off the line of scrimmage. 


If I was in charge of drafting the next tight end in Denver my first pick would be Troy Fumagalli. He could step in immediately and help create match up problems for opposing defenses. He is the closest thing of a full package of a tight end that could pick up the slack if Jake Butt isn't completely healthy, or doesn't return to the form he was when he was drafted. The other player I would look to take is Durham Smythe as I think he can be the big body Y tight end that Denver has really been lacking since the days of Byron Chamberlin and Dwayne Carswell. Finally, if Dallas Goerdert somehow falls to the 5th or 6th round I think if you are Denver you take a chance on him. The NFL is a game of match ups, and this kid is a match up nightmare, but with the needs Denver has in my opinion he is not worth the risk in the earlier rounds. 

Thursday, February 15, 2018

AJ McCarron is Brock 2.0


2/16/18

AJ McCarron is Brock 2.0

By Cliff Rodriguez @Crod303



Dear 8 pound 6 ounce baby Jesus; otherwise known has John Elway (according to Bronco’s homers that is). Please for the love of all that is holy in the mile high city; do not fall victim to the fraudulent upside of an unknown commodity. Broncos Country has been down this road before, we know how the story ends.

The only difference between AJ McCarron (6’3) and Brock Osweiler (6’7) is 4 inches and a smug ass grin. McCarron was original selected in the 5th round of the 2014 NFL draft. The 2014 QB class included superstars such as Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Logan Thomas, Tom Savage, and Aaron Murray. All of whom were selected before McCarron. Meaning at some point all were identified in most NFL circles as better prospects than McCarron. The 2014 QB class did also produce Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo both of whom appear to be franchise QBs; even considering Carr’s regression in 2017.

Prior to the 2014 NFL Combine McCarron was projected to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Most scouts believed that McCarron was a “Great Game Manager” and made “Great Decisions”. His draft stock fell after combine interviews in which McCarron reportedly came across as “cocky” and “over confident”. So much for being “a maker of great decisions”; say that in a Yoda voice………..you’re welcome.

For reasons beyond my level of comprehension; there is huge buzz around McCarron’s upside as a starting QB. Dude has played in 7; that’s one hand and two pinky toes worth of career games. All of his career starts (3) came in 2015. He’s complied 920 yards passing, completing 64.7% of his passes with a 6/2 TD to INT ratio.  He’s thrown 133 career passes.

I will give McCarron credit for being accurate in his limited playing time. In 2015 he averaged about 27 passing attempts per game started. He completed 61% of his passes for 6.3 yards per completion. That’s adequate numbers for a starter if you average it out for an entire season. Coincidently in 2015 McCarron’s teammate Andy Dalton compiled 3,250 passing yards, completing 66.1% of his passes averaging 8.4 yards per completion with a 25/7 TD to INT ratio in 13 games. So based off of these numbers McCarron wasn’t a huge down grade from Dalton in his first few starts. McCarron did go 2-1 as a starter including playing at Denver and vs Baltimore; both tough challenges. However keep in mind Brock Osweiler and Ryan Mallet were the starting QBs in those games.

After looking into McCarron’s career numbers from (2015) my Spidey sense isn’t tingling in a direction that leads me to believe in McCarron’s ability to be a viable solution for the Broncos in 2018. I’m fine with his accuracy. I think he is an adequate leader. I think with a good run game and defense he could win a few games as a spot starter.   

My negativity and disbelief in McCarron stems from one stat. 3rd down conversion percentage. The ability to sustain drives and score points in the NFL demands efficiency on 3rd downs. In 2017 the average 3rd conversion percentage in the NFL was approximately 38%. In 2015 while under center McCarron led the Bengals to a 34.5% conversion rate on 3rd downs (19/55). This stat is including the wild card game vs Pittsburgh.

To further kick McCarron in the junk; keep in mind that in 2017 the Denver Broncos offense was pathetically inefficient. However the Broncos were able to convert 94/241 3rd down attempts for a 39% conversion rate which ranked 15th in the NFL. That was from the trio of Trevor, Brock and Paxton. In 2016 the Trevor, Paxton ticket converted 34.2% of 3rd downs. In the magic season of 2015 Peyton (9 games) and Brock (8 games) converted 35.3% of 3rd downs.

In 2017 the top 3 teams in 3rd down conversion percentage were Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. In 2016 the top 3 teams were New Orleans, Green Bay, and New England/Tennessee (tied). In 2015 the top 3 were New Orleans, Atlanta and Arizona. See the pattern? Signs are everywhere.

Based on McCarron’s limited sample size and on a statistic that I feel exemplifies an NFL QBs worth; How could the Broncos possibly think McCarron is an upgrade to the backup QBs they already employee?

He’s the same guy. He’s Brock. He’s Trevor, He’s Mike Glennon. He’s Matt Flynn. Can you say Chad Henne, Matt Moore, he’s Blaine freaking Gabbert.

I 100% understand the argument that he’s half the price of Kirk Cousins on the free agent market, and could have a similar career trajectory if given an opportunity. I get it, he’s on sale and the Broncos are desperate bargain shoppers right now.

But why pay McCarron $18 million a year when you can keep Brock or Trevor for $10 million? Other than creating early season optimism the team would end up with the same record. Hell Paxton is basically free and could possibly convert 30% of the 3rd downs next year.   

3 years in a row is enough of a sample size to determine that something has to change on offense. Efficiency at QB has to be addressed. Stop retreading the tires. A $30 million dollar QB may not be the answer, but I know for a fact that a backup QB from another team isn’t the answer either. Don’t fall for the bait. Learn from Houston’s Brock experiment. Think about Mike Glennon, and remember Matt Flynn.

All stats came from Pro-Football Reference.


As always come at me haters; I always look forward to a debate.

Denver's Options At Slot Receiver

One of the things that was missing in Denver's offense last year was a receiver who could play in the slot, and open up the middle of the field. We simply didn't have anyone on the roster that could fill that role last year, and defenses took advantage of it. Add that in with the fact we had zero help at tight end, and the reasons our offense struggled just multiplied. 

Last years draft was supposed to produce the slot receiver we needed. Carlos Henderson was suppose to fill that role, but he got injured. Even before his injury he was struggling, and it was pretty clear that unless he made huge strides he wasn't going to be the guy. They drafted Isaiah Mackenzie from Georgia to provide a spark in the return game, and potentially grow into a slot receiver, but after all of his fumbles he will have a hard road to get any playing time. Even if he does he showed that he isn't necessarily a game breaker with his speed, and is more known for his shiftiness than ability to break the big play. 

What is a slot receiver? A slot receiver is a receiver like Wes Welker, or Brandon Stokely. A guy who isn't necessarily a track star, but is quick enough to get open, and run solid routes. This years draft has a few players who fit that role, but can also do a few more things other than catch the ball over the middle. For this post I am not going to go over the guys who will be at the top of the draft as Denver has other needs to fill there as we have gone over on this blog a few times. I am going to point out some names of receivers who strictly fit the role of slot receiver, and I am also going to give some names of players I think can fit that role, but are also special after they get the ball in their hands. 

The first name I am going to mention as a prototypical slot receiver is a kid named Braxton Berrios from the University of Miami. He played the slot at Miami and did an amazing job. His route running ability and hands are probably the best of any player I will mention in this post. Another thing about him that I think is important to look at is that he was a team captain. You can't be named a team captain of a major college program if you do not have the intangibles outside of just being a good football player. He looks like a mini Wes Welker in my opinion and would be a great target for our future quarterback to utilize. At 5'8 and 177lbs he has the body type, and size you look for to play in the slot. His projected to be taken in found 5-7, so he will be there for Denver to look at.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed-jXJsO_7k

The next player who fits what you want in a slot receiver is a player named Trey Quinn out of Southern Methodist University. He is 6' and 202lbs, so he is a little bigger than Berrios, but just as quick, and also has amazing hands. I watched a lot of film on this kid, and while he will not scare anyone with his speed, he can get open and make catches in traffic which is what you want for your slot receiver. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0yvBXbALdw

The next two players I am going to mention are players who can play in the slot, but can also score from anywhere on the field once they catch the ball. They are also able punt and kick returners, and Bronco fans saw last year that if you don't have the right guy returning kicks it can literally cost you the game, or games in the case of the Broncos last year. 

The first of these two players is a young man named Brandon Powell from the University of Florida. When I began watching film, and studying him people kept making comparisons to Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs. That is a pretty high bar for a comparison, but I am going to be the first to say that the comparison is real, and this kid is flat out fun to watch. He is 5'9 and weighed in at 184lbs, so he has the body type you look for in a slot receiver, but he also was used out of the backfield, and to return kicks. Simply put, if you give this guy a seam there isn't anybody that will catch him. His he projected right now to be taken in the 6th round or later, so he is another guy Denver will not have to move up or down the draft board to get. He would be an immediate upgrade in our punt and kick return game, and can be used like a Tyreek Hill in that you can put him in the backfield, or run gimmick plays for him to get in space and use his speed and agility to make plays. If you watch any of the highlights I post watch this one. This kid is just fun to watch play football. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siUlxgrt1ZA&t=190s

The last player I will outline that can play the slot, but can also do special things after he has the ball in his hands is another player from the University of Florida named Antonio Callaway. He is a special player who became the 21st player in FBS history to score a touchdown 5 different ways. He might be a better pure receiver than Brandon Powell, but just from the film I have watched he doesn't have the explosive speed that Powell has. Callaway is projected to go in rounds 4-6, so he will be there for Denver to take should they decide they like him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNcuxLvpI-k

If I was picking for the Broncos my pick would be either be Berrios or Powell. I think Berrios is more of a "sure thing" as far as a slot receiver, but the upside to Brandon Powell is huge. He was recruited to Florida as a running back, but then developed into a slot receiver, and punt and kick returner. In a perfect world we could pick up both. Let me know your thoughts, or in the words of one of my co-authors, "Come at me haters". 


Monday, February 12, 2018

The View From Section 142


2/13/18

The View from Section 142

By Cliff Rodriguez @CliffRod303



I’ve been a Nuggets season ticket holder since 2009. In that time I’ve seen some great players and some good teams come through Denver. Over the last nine years the team has been both a perennial playoff team and a NBA waste-land. Post Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets were never quite good enough to contend for a title; and never quite bad enough to score a franchise changing player via the draft.

The 2017/18 Nuggets have brought renewed life to a previously dismal franchise. Fresh off an exciting ending to the 2016 season the Nuggets looked ready to take the next step towards the western conference playoffs. The acquisition of an NBA all-star in Paul Millsap created a huge buzz around town. Most fans, including myself couldn’t wait to see Millsap play with this team. Unfortunately Millsap went down with a wrist injury a mere 16 games into his first season with the Nuggets.

My instant reaction was obviously here we go again. Denver was finally able field a roster that should be able to make a run at the playoffs and our best player was injured within the first quarter of the season. Annoyed with the basketball gods I did what any self-righteous fan with great seats would do. I started selling off my tickets to all the premium games. Unashamed I made a large amount of money slanging my tickets to unworthy bandwagon fans. Golden State, Houston, OKC, the Lakers all have legions of trendy douche bags willing to pay premium dollars to keep up the charade of their fandom.

Although I did not attend many games, I watched every one of them. All I wanted was the Nuggets to stay relevant during Millsap’s absence. Stay in striking distance, compete every night, and develop an identity is what I was hoping for.

In surprising and heroic like fashion Denver has been able to stay 100% relevant in the western conference playoff picture. At 30-26 the Nuggets are currently in the 7th seed in the conference and are only one game out of the 5th seed.  The core of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic has put the western conference on notice, that this team is for real. The play of Will Barton and Trey Lyles has presented a challenge to every team every night; and right now there isn’t a team that’s looking forward to playing Denver in round one of the playoffs.

I see a team that’s learning to win. I see a team that’s becoming more confident with each win. I see a team that has the roster and fire power to beat anyone on any given night in a variety of ways. I also see a team that needs to learn how to stop the bleeding. I see a team that needs to learn how to win when they aren’t playing their best. I see a team that is still afraid to lose.

This team needs time. We haven’t seen their best yet. The hard part for us the “fan” is being patient. Sustained success has to be built. In this day and age we all want instant gratification. This can’t be rushed. The blueprint is on the table, the ingredients are being prepped. Don’t fall victim to low hanging fruit.

The best move the front office has made this season, was not panicking at the trade deadline last week. They could have easily started to let talent go for pennies on the dollar and trade away future picks. Holding their ground showed me that they know that this team is close to contending. Not selling the farm for a chance at a playoffs was the right move. When you’re close to sustained greatness, continued patience is necessary. If they were fighting for a top 3 seed and had an actual shot at the title this season then they should have made more moves. Holding their ground and saving picks as set them up to make significant upgrades in both free agency and the draft for next season.  

The Nuggets are on track to be a perennial playoff team again. The future is bright. This season will end in disappointment, but without disappointment you can’t appreciate victory. Get ready for some great basketball. Mark my words, if Denver stays on track with the core of Murray, Harris, Jokic, Millsap and Lyles they will be a top 3 seed in 2020 and will be in contention for an NBA in title until 2023.

Come at me haters.

New Authors

As people continue to read the blog I find myself unable to keep up with all the information in the sports world, and wanted to get a couple more people whose opinion on sports I respect to contribute as authors. Coming in to help author more articles are a couple friends who are like brothers to me. Mike Bierman, whom I have known and been friends with since I was in 3rd grade is coming aboard to share his insight and wisdom with the readers of the blog.

The other writer that is coming aboard is Cliff Rodriguez, who I have been friends with since I met him when I was in 7th grade. He always has a different, and well thought out point of view on all sports related topics, and is one of my favorite people to debate sports with.

I am a firm believer in presenting multiple opinions, and enjoying a hobby with close friends. There are no Denver sports topics that are off limits, and sometimes one of us may write an article that another writer will disagree with, or present a counter point to. That is the point of having multiple writers, to present different ideas, and look at things from a different perspective. At the end of the day we all want our Colorado sports teams to win championships every year, and our promise is you will always get honest, and entertaining opinions on Colorado sports topics.

The Change Of Pace Back

One of the many things the Broncos were missing last year was a player who could score from any point on the field out of the backfield. There are 3 kinds of running backs in the NFL, power backs like LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, or even CJ Anderson. The next type of back is the change of pace back. The running back who has great speed and elusiveness. The kind of player who can return punts and kicks, and catch passes out of the backfield. Probably the best example of this type of back is a Darren Sproles, or a Danny Woodhead. They create match up problems as they are usually too fast for linebackers, and too big for safeties. Finally, the 3rd, and most rare type of back these days is your every down back. A guy who can do it all like Leonard Fournette, or Adrian Peterson. They can score at from any point on the field, and have the size to get the short yards.

Obviously every team wants a guy like Leonard Fournette, but if you can't find one of them you have to find players that fit each role. In this post I am going to go over the potential change of pace backs that are available in the draft this year.

The 2018 draft has a few guys at the top of the pack like a Sony Michelle, Bryce Love, or Ronald Jones. All of them have the ability to score from any point on the field if they get into the secondary. Sony Michelle has the potential to be an every down back who could be special, but the other two most likely will fill the change of pace role for whichever team picks them up. For the sake of argument in this post lets assume that all 3 are gone, so who are the guys Denver should be looking at.

My first pick for Denver would be a player named Nyheim Hines who is a running back from NC State. At 5'8 and 197lbs he isn't going to be a "between the tackles" back, but he was a track star for NC State in the 100 meter, and 60 meter sprint. He can return kicks, and is a very good receiver out of the backfield. Hines is exactly the type of player Denver needs, a guy who can score any time he touches the ball.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taKEoX7tXQM&t=1s

My next choice is Akrum Wadley out of Iowa. He is 5'9 and 188lbs, so again he will not be powering for the short yards, but he is special when he gets the ball in his hands. Along with impressive rushing numbers he had 28 receptions for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns. Like Hines he can return punts and kicks, so he can he can be used multiple ways.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SwhmnYjQQc&t=123s

My 3rd choice for a potential change of pace back from the Broncos is Ito Smith out of Southern Mississippi. He is 5'10 and 202lbs. He had 43 receptions for 396 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He would be a great compliment to CJ Anderson and whoever else Denver decides to sign to fix their back field this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKSJjLqWLuA

My long shot, or surprise pick is a guy by the name of Martez Carter, who played from Grambling State. He is 5'7 and 204lbs. To go along with 854 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and he also had 33 receptions for 449 yards and two touchdowns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skuOAGgSTz0

All 4 of these running backs have great speed, can return kicks, and are a receiving threat out of the backfield. Last year Denver's special teams were only special in the amount of points they gave up or were responsible for. They also couldn't ever seem to get a running back out of the backfield and matched up on a linebacker. All 4 of these guys have big play ability, can catch the ball out of the backfield. Whoever the next quarterback of the Broncos is would benefit greatly from having one of these guys in the backfield with them.

Lets Talk Nuggets Basketball

Being from Denver we know that this is a football town. It always has been, and always will be, but the Nuggets and Avs are making serious pushes for the playoffs, and I don't remember a time I have been more excited for the start of the Rockies season in a long time. 

The Denver Nuggets are quietly putting together a great season in an NBA where the narrative is almost you have to have at least 3 legit stars to even challenge for a playoff spot. Not to mention that they are in the Western Conference which is by far the superior conference in the NBA. If Denver was in the Eastern Conference they would probably be challenging Boston and Cleveland for the top spot in the conference. Emanuel Mudiay was suppose to be the next Russell Westbrook, a high tempo, fast guard, who can penetrate the paint, and then through his ability to see the court can make the people around him better. Sadly for Nuggets fans that didn't happen. During his time here it became more and more apparent that the hopes we had were never going to pan out. He failed to get a better 3 point shot, and his position was taken from him by Jamal Murray who is everything we thought Mudiay would be, and therefore made Mudiay a bench player. To his credit he worked his tail off coming off the bench, and showed great character in that he didn't start talking to the media, or creating issues in the locker room.

Devin Harris is who they got in return, and with him they have something they have needed all year which is a veteran point guard, who doesn't make too many turnovers, and can score pretty consistently from beyond the arc. What Denver has now might not be a team that has 2 to 3 super stars, but they are a team that can go 10 deep and create match up problems with just about any team in the NBA. They have been playing better than .500 basketball, and they are doing it without their star in Paul Milsap. Can they go star for star with teams like Golden State, or Houston? The answer is obviously no, but what they can do is create match up problems for any team in the NBA, and with the roster as it is currently constructed can play an up tempo, or go into a half court offense where they can take advantage of their match ups. Their starting line up with Jamal Murray at point guard, Gary Harris at shooting guard, Wilson Chandler at small forward, Paul Milsap at power forward, and Nikola Jokic at center is a very strong starting line up. Our back court is probably one of the most underrated back courts in the NBA as both Harris and Murray can hit the outside shot, but both of them also play pretty good defense. I will say it now on record but Gary Harris is one of, if not the most underrated shooting guards in the NBA. Night in and night out he shows he is a two way player, and he is capable of scoring against anyone, anytime, anywhere. The back court is solid, but what about the front court? Wilson Chandler is a borderline 6'10 player who can guard all 5 positions on the floor, but has the offensive capability to create match up issues with players that are smaller than he is. He can hit the 3 pointer, drive the lane, and isn't afraid to get physical when he has too. Moving on to power forward and Paul Milsap, he is a power forward who has the ball skills of a small forward, and the ability to rebound and play defense as good or better than any other power forward in the game. I remember when he played for Utah he use to be the thorn in the Nuggets side. He is equally as effective in an up tempo offense as he is in a half court offense that inevitably happens in the playoffs. Finally we get to the man in the middle, and literal center piece of the franchise in Nikola Jokic. We have never had a big man in Denver with his capabilities. He can rebound, block shots, and could be the best shooting center in the NBA from both mid range and beyond the arc. What makes him even more special is his on court vision, and ability to make the special pass to create easy buckets for his teammates. He is a special player, and a center piece we can build around. 

What makes our team special is our bench, and that will be what drives us to a playoff run. With guys like Will Barton, Mason Plumlee, and what is probably the biggest surprise of the year Trey Lyles coming off the bench opposing teams do not get a "break" when our starters come out. To say Lyles has been a pleasant surprise is an understatement. Lyles is a 6'10 forward who can play the small forward, power forward, or center position off the bench, plays tough defense, and has a very underrated outside shot. Then you add in the point guard we just traded for in Devin Harris, and he is the compliment to the high pace, run and gun back court we have with Gary Harris and Murray. Harris is a veteran who also has a ability from behind the arc, can get the other players involved, but he is not the defensive liability that Mudiay was. From there you add in guys like Richard Jefferson, Kenneth Faried, Juan Hernangmoez, and two guys who have really been nice surprises in Torrey Craig and Malik Beasley, and you can start to see how Denver's depth will be an issue for teams in the playoffs. When other teams shorten their bench Denver has the ability go deep into their bench to run teams out of the gym. It is an exciting time to be a Nuggets fan, and it will be fun to see what they can do for the rest of the year when the get Milsap back, and they begin to make their run into the playoffs. 

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Two Players Who Should Be On The Broncos Radar

The underlying theme of most of my blog posts thus far has been that Denver needs to rebuild their offensive line. This years draft is pretty stacked with talented offensive linemen, and Denver is no doubt going to try and get their hands on a couple of these guys. With the 5th pick in the draft Denver will basically have their "pick of the litter", and we have the opportunity to pick up a linemen that will be a foundational piece of this team for hopefully the next 8 to 10 years. I have discussed the names at the top of the list, but after doing a little more research on the linemen coming out this year I want to bring up a couple of players that people are not talking about as much. 

The first player I'll mention is a left tackle named Desmond Harrison from the University of West Georgia.  Harrison is 6'7 and 300lbs, and started his career at a junior college then transferred to the University of Texas. While at Texas he had some eligibility and discipline issues which is how he ended up player at West Georgia. All you have to do is put on the film of this kid and you will see that might be the most physically gifted tackle in this draft. His ability to get to the second level is very impressive. His footwork in pass protection is also extremely smooth, and he plays with an "edge" that you like to see in your offensive linemen. While there isn't too much film on him, the film there is shows him literally finishing his blocks by taking his opponent to the ground on just about every play. Some websites have him listed as light as 288lbs, while others have him as heavy as 315lbs. Either way he will have to gain some weight between now and when the season starts, but this kid has all the skills to be a cornerstone at left tackle for whichever team takes a gamble on him. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVEjpoBzhrI&t=4s

The second player I will spotlight is Frank Ragnow who is a center from the University of Arkansas. During his time at Arkansas he also played right guard, and that is where I see him playing here in Denver. Matt Paradis is the one bright spot on our offensive line, so I do not necessarily think we need to make a change there, but on top of being voted the top center in college football Ragnow hasn't given up a sack in 2 years. Considering he plays in the SEC that is saying something. Ragnow is 6'5 and weighs right around 320lbs, and he would be ready to step in and start from day 1 should Denver decide to draft him. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9uMW2mLf4U&t=10s

Should the Broncos decide to take the best player available with the 5th pick, or draft one of the QBs at the top of the draft these are two players who they could draft that could make an impact right away at two positions they need the most. 

Monday, February 5, 2018

What Can Bronco Fans Take Away From This Super Bowl?

I think just about every fan of a team that wasn't in the Super Bowl was watching and thinking to themselves "what does my team need to have to get to be able to play in this game?" Some teams need more than others, but I think watching that game it became pretty clear what the Broncos are missing. Quite honestly it is the same thing they've been missing for at least the last two years, and that is a dominant offensive line. Anyone who has been around football for a long period of time knows this. It is one of the basic universal rules in football: you must have a dominant line to make your running game effective, and to protect your quarterback. To put it frankly the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line flat out bullied the Patriots defensive line. They were able to open holes for the running backs, and protect Nick Foles.

Denver tried 3 different quarterbacks this year and they all had limited success at best. What is the common denominator? The offensive line. This is why I believe it is foolish at best to think that plugging in another quarterback behind the line the way it is currently constructed will have a different outcome than what we saw this past year. Should Denver go sign Kirk Cousins for what will probably be close to 30 million dollars a year, but fail to rebuild their line all you will have a QB collecting a huge paycheck with average success at best. It also will not matter who you have running the ball because they will literally have nowhere to go.

This leads me into the other thing that Philadelphia has that we don't: a power running game. The Eagles have two backs in LeGarrett Blount and Jay Ajyai who are both 225lbs+, and will run through someone. In the first quarter it might not be as successful you would expect, but come the 4th quarter when the defense starts getting worn down from tackling two guys who are that big you will start to see more and more success. As it stands now CJ Anderson and Devontae Booker are not those guys. We can talk all the we want about who is taking the snaps next year, but unless that person has a offensive line that has a element of nasty to it, and a couple of running backs who play the same way Denver will have another average year at best. It is not sexy, but this off season Denver's main priority should be to build that offensive line, and find a couple of running backs who will get the tough yards. Once they have those things in place the quarterback issue will be easier to solve. I am confident our front office knows this, and next year we will have up to 3 new starters on the offensive line who hopefully bring the nastiness we need to once again dominate the line of scrimmage."